As the current metal of choice for wedding rings and a main component of catalytic converters for more environmentally friendly cars, demand for platinum is on the up. There has been a supply deficit for five years with Russia, the world’s second-largest producer, holding on to supplies.
The metal consequently proved more resilient than most others to May’s commodities market weakness.
Increasingly tough vehicle emissions legislation (and correspondingly higher demand for catalytic converters) should be a major driver of future demand, says analyst Rebecca O’Dwyer of Morgan Stanley. This distinguishes platinum from the bulk and base metals whose prices have been lifted by China’s appetite for raw commodities. As a result, platinum’s gains are back in synch with those of gold for the first time in a decade.
What does this mean for platinum miners? Lonmin (LMI), the third-largest producer, deserves to trade on a higher rating, as it merits being valued more like a gold producer than a diversified miner, says O’Dwyer.
The group also uses less labour-intensive mechanisation than competitors and aims for labour to represent no more than 40% of its total costs by 2010, against 60% currently. Morgan Stanley reckons that £42 a share is a realistic price target for the firm; a gain of more than 40% from current levels. An even healthier potential upside of 60% is possible for mid-sized operator Aquarius Platinum (AQP), which is regarded as having better growth potential than many of its larger rivals.
by Graham Buck