Is Asia about to go to war?
No. But a number of countries are beginning to polish their sabres, most obviously with North Korea’s claimed test of a nuclear weapon in October last year. The communist state isn’t the only one trying to boost its military clout. In Japan, long-standing calls for a more assertive foreign policy have a strong supporter in prime minister Shinzo Abe, although it remains to be seen whether his electoral drubbing will hurt these plans.
Why is Abe talking tough?
Japan’s constitution, instated after World War II, commits it to a very strict passive, pacifistic military policy. Not only are Japanese troops only supposed to act in self-defence, but it also rules out the idea of collective self-defence with its allies. In other words, Japan would not be allowed to, say, shoot down a North Korean missile headed for the US, because it wouldn’t directly threaten Japan. But plenty of politicians, and around 50% of the Japanese public, are actively in favour of changing this. The government is already reviewing the strict interpretation of the constitution that bans collective self-defence and on 3 May – the 60th anniversary of the constitution – Abe proposed much broader changes, potentially doing away with the commitment to pacifism.
Why might this be justified?
There are two obvious reasons. One is that it would enable Japanese troops to play a bigger role in international peace-keeping missions. The current constitution is a major handicap in this regard: Japanese troops who were deployed in Iraq until last year were not allowed to use force and had to be protected by other peace-keepers. The other reason would be that the Japan/US alliance would be a much stronger tool for maintaining the balance of power in the Pacific against a rising China and Russia. The US would certainly like to see Japan be more forward in this area: US officials have called for Japan to increase military spending (currently around 1% of GDP, versus 4% for the US) and they support Japan’s moves to acquire a stronger offensive capacity.
So what’s Japan doing?
Investing in refuelling tankers and aircraft carriers and talking of buying weapons, such as long-range missiles. The US has even suggested that it might sell the F-22 Raptor fighter to its ally – sparking some negative responses from neighbouring countries, including US-friendly South Korea.
Why is this causing concern?
Memories of Japan’s actions in WWII mean that any hint of rising militarism rouses suspicions among its neighbours. The former prime minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, once said that allowing Japan to take part in peace-keeping exercises was like giving liquor chocolates to a recovering alcoholic. Any signs that Japan is moving away from pacifism cause anxiety, especially given sporadic moves by Japanese politicians – including Abe – to promote patriotism and play down the country’s atrocious actions in WWII. But in reality, Asian nations are likely to have more serious concerns about China’s intentions.
What’s China doing?
Flexing its military and its financial muscles. In January, it test-fired a missile that would enable it to blow up satellites in orbit; then in March it upped its military budget by 17.8% to $44.9bn – the fourth-largest spender globally and one place above Japan. China claims that despite its growing military heft (this year’s spending boost is just the latest in a long line of 10%-plus increases) it has nothing but good intentions. It claims to be following a doctrine of a “peaceful rise”, or heping jueqi, and it has made positive gestures in recent years, avoiding stirring old territorial disputes. But no one fully trusts this and its claim over Taiwan – which is under US protection – is the region’s most dangerous flashpoint.
What does this mean for the region?
Other countries clearly feel they should strengthen their militaries in response. At the launch of South Korea’s new Aegis destroyer in May, President Roh Moo-hyun said: “North East Asia is still in an arms race and we cannot just sit back and watch”. The prospects of an arms race and the growing power of China have seen some observers compare the state of affairs to pre-World War One Europe and the tensions between Britain and Germany. But that sounds excessive. While it’s rash to assume sane behaviour from North Korea, the latest round of talks seems to be leading to genuine progress, including talk of a treaty to formally end the Korean war. Meanwhile, in Taiwan the China-baiting President Chen Shui-bian is likely to be succeeded by a pragmatist keen to maintain the status quo. Overall, while trends in Asia could be more comforting, there’s more reason to be worried about Middle East risks, such as a nuclear Iran or a radical takeover in Pakistan, than an Asian war.
Why does China claim Taiwan?
After Mao’s communists won the Chinese civil war in 1949, the government fled the mainland for Taiwan. Beijing has ever since viewed Taiwan as a renegade province that should be brought back under its control, but the Cold War meant that Taiwan fell under US protection. Neither side wants conflict; hence in a face-saving stalemate, Beijing tolerates Taiwan’s autonomy as long as the island does not explicitly declare independence, while most Taiwanese politicians avoid provoking China. However, President Chen has strained relations by suggesting a referendum on such a declaration.