It seems not a day goes by lately without more bearish news on the UK property market. We summarise the latest statistics from the four leading indices – plus their predictions are for 2008.
Nationwide
Annual change: 9.7% up from 9% in September
Monthly change: 1.1% up from 0.7% in September
Average house price: £186,044
2008 prediction: House-price inflation will drop from 9.7% to 0% by November 2008.
The Nationwide index is based on the building society’s own mortgage approvals. Its results are timely, but the sample used will always be biased to the areas where Nationwide has a stronger market presence.
Halifax
Annual change: 8.9% down from 10.7% in September
Monthly change: -0.5% up from -0.6% in September
Average house price: £197,248 L
ike the Nationwide index, the Halifax index is based on the final mortgage agreed between the building society and the buyer. The index has a northern bias, as Halifax has more branches in the north of the country.
Hometrack
Annual change: 4.4% down from 5.0% in September
Monthly change: -0.1% down from 0% in September
2008 prediction: House-price inflation will be 1% in 2008. The Hometrack index is based on data collected from 3,500 estate agents in every postcode district of England and Wales. However, the data is based on asking prices rather than sales prices, so is arguably not as accurate as its less timely peers.
Rightmove
Annual change: 7.9% down from 10.4% in October
Monthly change: -0.7% down from 2.7% in October
Average house price: £239,986
2008 prediction: House-price inflation will fall to 0% in 2008.
The Rightmove index is usually the first to be released, as it is based on asking prices for houses placed on its website. While the sample size is large – the firm claims 35% of homes for sale are listed on its site – like Hometrack it is based on asking prices rather than sale prices.