Here’s a list of words that have one thing in common: transparent, competent, efficient, capitalistic. The thing they have in common? You couldn’t use any of them to describe the debacle that is Northern Rock before yesterday’s announcement of a new ‘solution’ to the problem and you can’t now either.
Four months ago it became clear that Northern Rock was effectively bust and that for it to continue operating in any form it would need a vast amount of government support. That is still the case. Brown would have us believe that should he be able to push through the Goldman Sachs solution – whereby Northern Rock pays back its debt to the Treasury by issuing new bonds backed by the Treasury –all will be well.
But nothing will have changed. The fact that the debt will be backed by the Treasury means that we will be taking precisely the same amount of risk as we are now: if the housing market crashes and cash flows from Northern Rock’s remaining business is not sufficient to redeem the bonds it will be the taxpayer not the tooth fairy who makes up the difference. Let’s not forget that the reason we are where we are is because no one in the private sector was prepared, despite the best efforts of Goldman Sachs, to stump up the cash to do a deal. So if they won’t take the risk, why should we?
I know it isn’t remotely politically acceptable but I still think that the bank should be nationalised and run down – it would be best if we could all hop in a time machine and start this process last autumn, but failing that now is fine too. The only people who don’t think this are Gordon Brown (who doesn’t want the debt on his balance sheet or the slur on his shaky reputation) and the many shareholders who have spent the last few months blithering on about their rights.
Shareholders do have rights. Of course they do. And number one on their list of rights is the right to the right to sell when it is clear the business they have invested in is a hopeless one. I wish they had all exercised it four months ago.
First published in The Evening Standard, 22/1/08