A cloud of ash from a volcano in Iceland shut down European air travel. But will the economic impact be greater than a short-term hit to airline profits? Simon Wilson reports.
The Eyjajallajökull volcano and the ash cloud it spewed over northern Europe was a classic black swan event. It was unforeseen, surprising, and it could force us into a radical rethink of our attitudes – in this case, our reliance on air travel and how it underpins the global integration we take for granted. Airports from Ireland to Ukraine shut down, causing disruption to international air travel far worse than that following the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001. Passengers were stranded not only in Europe, but around the world, with global routes that use Europe as a hub hit too. The cost to airlines could be anything from $1.7bn up, according to estimates. And that’s before factoring in costs to the rest of global business.
Who has been hit?
It’s been terrible for east African flower and vegetable growers, Israeli avocado farmers, and anyone else with a business in any way relying on air transport to or from Europe. Many farmers in Kenya, where horticulture is the main foreign exchange earner, face ruin. Here in Britain air travel, which enables just-in-time delivery and access to markets, is vitally important to strategic high-value research and manufacturing businesses. Air freight represents just 1% of the UK’s trade by weight, but around 30% in value, with the pharmaceutical sector especially reliant on air. That said, many economists argue that, as long as the disruption is now largely contained and does not carry on for weeks or months, there will be no significant impact on Europe’s overall GDP or growth prospects.
Are they right to assume that?
Possibly. But Iceland’s volcanoes might take their own view. Eyjajallajökull has only erupted on three occasions since the island was settled by Vikings in the ninth century. But the last time it did so, in 1823, it blew intermittently for 14 months. And Eyjajallajökull is not even among the biggest or most volatile of Iceland’s 22 active volcanoes. There is a risk that the neighbouring, much larger, Katla could explode (see below). It wouldn’t be the first time an Icelandic eruption has been linked to a fundamental change in the course of history. The eruption of Laki in 1783 lasted for about eight months, and sent ash drifting south. That’s thought to have caused crop failures and starvation in France, and was a driver behind the French Revolution, say economic historians.
Might we go hungry this time?
Happily, no. There has been lots of press coverage on the plight of Kenyan farmers. Large quantities of flowers, green beans, mange tout and sugar snap peas are flown daily into the UK from Kenya. But while these are hugely important exports for Kenya, they’re of marginal importance to Britain. Without air travel, we might have to alter our diets a bit. Out of season, there would be shortages of lettuce, grapes and asparagus, for example. But a prolonged, or even permanent, lack of planes would not see us starve. Three-quarters of fresh produce sold in Britain is grown here. Most of the rest (bananas, for example) comes in by boat. Just 1% of goods in supermarkets arrive by air.
What about politics?
The ash cloud had one decisive effect on diplomatic relations: it stopped world leaders, including Barack Obama and Angela Merkel, from attending last weekend’s state funeral of Poland’s President Kaczynski. But what if this were a taste of things to come? Anne Applebaum in The Washington Post argued that global relations would be transformed by a world in which air travel could not be taken for granted. In Europe, for example, the whole process of closer integration would be reversed as markets for goods and labour become more rigidly national. The English Channel and the Atlantic Ocean would suddenly seem deeper, and the European continent wider and longer, almost as if we had gone back in time a century.
And what about defence?
The shutdown has already affected the military; the US relies on Europe as a staging-post for operations in the Middle East and Asia. US supplies for operations in Afghanistan were disrupted, and medical evacuation flights from Iraq and Afghanistan to Germany, where injured soldiers are usually treated, were diverted to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland. On the one hand, then, a world with unreliable air communications would seem to make it harder for the US to project power globally. Against that, a world without planes would tend to reinforce the (already huge and widely underestimated) role of sea power in shaping global power and politics. The world has only one significant sea power, which dominates both the Atlantic and the Pacific and has a naval force larger than the next 13 national navies combined – the US.
What’s the threat from Katla?
Each time in recorded history Eyjajallajökull has erupted, Katla has followed within a year or so. It’s only happened three times, so it’s not a trend and there is no proven causal link. However, one of Iceland’s top glacier experts, Helgi Björnsson, outlined a scenario in which the current eruption triggers Katla to blow. The last time it did, in 1918, the flow of magma and molten rock was ten times greater than the current eruption. The eruption column from Eyjajallajökull stretched from six to ten kilometres into the troposphere; but a 1918-style eruption would stretch 20km into the stratosphere, and likely spread ash over a much greater swathe of Eurasia, disrupting air travel for far longer.