John Stepek highlights some of the best bits from our free emails, newsletters, blog and MoneyWeek magazine that we’ve published in the past week.
● This week, it’s been all about the euro again. Just as Greece was successfully rolling over the dodgy debts that caused all the trouble in the first place, Germany decided to ban ‘naked’ short-selling without any warning whatsoever. As one wag put it, it’s a surprise to see the Germans ban naked anything – and the financial markets were certainly rattled by the decision.
Clearly the ban was a political move to distract German voters from the fact that they are paying to save Greece, as I noted in Money Morning last week. As if to confirm it, the German parliament passed the Greek bailout package with a comfortable majority on Friday.
But it panicked traders, who wondered what the Germans knew that everyone else didn’t, and where the next regulatory blow might come from. Political risk is now one of the biggest worries for investors everywhere, as we point out in this week’s MoneyWeek cover story. If you’re not already a subscriber, subscribe to MoneyWeek magazine.
● The fall-out has left most of the world’s major stock markets well into ‘correction’ territory for the year – down 10% or more. And China is in a fully-fledged bear market. One man who’s been preparing his readers for this is Tim Price. Tim, who writes The Price Report newsletter, is a respected City analyst and regularly writes for MoneyWeek.
Let me just say, I get lots of emails and analyst reports sent to me everyday – literally hundreds in a typical week. Tim is one of the very few people on my ‘priority’ list. I always make time to read his stuff. He’s put together a report on the three investments you need to buy before this correction turns into a fully-fledged crash.
● Ironically, while the world’s stock markets tanked on fears about its longevity, the euro bounced back strongly against the dollar this week. It’s a good reason to make sure you always use a stop-loss when spread betting – as my colleague Tim Bennett pointed out earlier this week.
However, we can’t see the rebound lasting. We’re not optimistic about the future of the euro, at least, not in its current form. Indeed, Merryn Somerset Webb, our editor-in-chief, suggested that Greece’s best way out now is to both default on its debt, and ditch the single currency. Why? Well, the population is going to face a lower standard of living whatever happens. However you add it up, “running Greece costs more than Greece currently charges its taxpayers.”
So why not just go for the nuclear option and be done with it? By abandoning the euro as well as its debts, Greece would “dispose of the worst of its debt burden and get its monetary flexibility (along with any growth this might encourage) back at the same time. And it will at least own the process, getting out before either Germany forces it out or leaves itself. The rest of Europe might not be keen (their banks may find coping with the fallout tricky) but I can’t imagine the Greeks are in any mood to care.”
● Meanwhile, back in Blighty, the pound didn’t get much of a helping hand from the latest batch of promises from Cameron, Clegg & co. All the speculation over capital gains tax (CGT) isn’t doing much for their popularity with investors. You can read Merryn’s take on it here.
My main problem with messing around with CGT is the fact that, in terms of government money-spinners, it’s small change. Last year it raised less than £3bn. That’s less than the tax on beer alone. Even in 2008/09, the peak of the last 10 years, it only raised £7.9bn. Compare that to VAT, at £67bn last year. So CGT – a tax on the ‘rich’ – is mainly going up for political reasons. It’s largely to try to compensate for the fact that we can only sort our finances out by hiking VAT – a tax on everyone.
● I’m already heartily sick of one aspect of the ‘new politics’ – the whole ’80s revival that it’s inspired. The ’80s were bad enough the first time round – I’d rather be spared the reruns.
But Paul Hill thinks investors should brace themselves for the return of something far worse than mullets and day-glo legwarmers – he means riots. In the latest edition of his Precision Guided Investments newsletter, he takes a trip down memory lane…
“As a kid I grew up in Walsall. And every morning I would catch a bus across Birmingham that went right through some of the toughest neighbourhoods in the UK. Normally this wasn’t a problem. But after Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979, she dished out some economic medicine that sparked serious rioting across the city.
“I remember on several occasions, the bus driver having to tell the passengers that the doors were locked and the bus would not be stopping as it travelled through Handsworth and Lozells – where passing traffic was being used as target practise for bricks and even petrol-bombs.
“Why am I telling you this? Because I am convinced that the savage cuts about to be introduced by the Lib-Con coalition will be met with the same furious backlash we saw in 1979. For two years now, most people have been insulated from the full effects of this recession by colossal government borrowing and near zero interest rates.
“Now those comforts will be stripped from them. And anger will ferment as months of unemployment stretch out ahead of Britain’s 2.5 million unemployed. We’ve already seen Athens over-run by angry public sector workers. I fear that could be a taster of what is to come in this country.”
● It’s a grim prospect. But Paul’s not just looking at potential social trends for the sake of depressing his readers. He’s hoping to profit from them. He’s been using what he calls Barack Obama’s personal government “tip sheet” to pick up on hot sectors before the rest of the world cottons on.
● Enough gloom and doom. For all that the world’s finances don’t look too healthy, the march of technology continues at a blinding pace. This week, Craig Venter and Hamilton Smith, two American biologists who were the first scientists to sequence the DNA of a living organism, created the world’s first artificial life.
We’ll have more about on the topic in the next issue of MoneyWeek. But while the investment implications of artificial life are probably some way off in the future, there are plenty of other innovations we can make money from.
Tom Bulford for example, told readers of his free Penny Sleuth email all about the ‘imop’ this week. As Tom says, it’s not a cleaning app for your iPhone – in fact it’s “a smart little electrical component that could cut your electricity bill by up to 25%.” The company behind the imop, Advanced Power Components (APC) “is on the recovery trail” after a tough recession. I don’t have time to go into the science of this gadget, but you can read Tom’s full piece here.
● What else before I go? A reader, commenting on a Money Morning article last week, suggested we’re a bit hard on Europe: “What makes you so sure you’re the ones who “get it”? Reading MoneyWeek on the subject, you’d think that the entire continent is made up of half-wits and three-year olds. There are phenomenal brains on the other side of the argument, at the ECB, at the IMF et al, who I’ll wager have a deeper understanding of the crisis than do MoneyWeek… and who yet don’t see Europe and the euro’s demise as a foregone conclusion.”
Let me quickly answer that. We don’t have an ideological bias against Europe. We just don’t think the single currency is practical in its current form. The cards are stacked against it. And while I’m sure there are plenty of smart people at the European Central Bank, they’re hardly neutral on the topic. Jean-Claude Trichet can’t turn around tomorrow and say: “Ah well, the euro’s a waste of time – back to the drawing board…”.
But if you want to see a couple of proper intellectual heavyweights debate the issue, check out this video. It shows Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz squaring up to everyone’s favourite ‘evil’ speculator, Hugh Hendry on Newsnight in February, over whether Greece’s debt problems are an issue or not. With hindsight, you’d have been better off putting your money on Hendry. And Merryn’s just been interviewing him for next week’s magazine, so you can find out his latest thoughts next Friday (and if you’re not yet a subscriber, what are you waiting for? The subscribe to MoneyWeek magazine, after all…)