The so-called Arab Spring raised hopes that democracy would come to dictatorships across the region. Progress has stalled but will probably not fail, says Simon Wilson
Has the Arab Spring stalled?
The former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak made an extraordinary court appearance this week, wheeled in on a hospital bed to deny charges of corruption and murder – the first deposed ‘Arab Spring’ leader to be tried in person. The trial reminds the world of those heady days in February when a region apparently doomed to economic stasis and political repression showed signs of blossoming into democracy. But hopes have faded. Bahrain’s revolt was crushed; Libya and Yemen remain stuck in violent stalemate; and Syria’s regime is brutally repressing dissent, leading to a growing view that the Arab Spring has foundered.
Isn’t Egypt heading for democracy?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled for autumn, but the ongoing occupations in Tahrir Square illustrate the battle between those demanding deeper, faster change and the old guard – many of whom served Mubarak – allied to the military. “In 1952 we had a coup that turned into a revolution,” a Cairo activist told The Economist, referring to the army putsch that overthrew King Farouk then replaced his democracy with a socialist dictatorship. “This time we seem to have had a revolution that turned into a coup.”
What about elsewhere?
A recent Times survey of the Middle East and north Africa – which measured the success of the Arab uprisings in promoting free elections, free speech, respect for human rights and other benchmarks – found that only Tunisia (planning elections to a constituent assembly in October) appears to be “on the right side of the dividing line between democracy and autocracy”. Even there, some doubt that elections (postponed from July) will actually happen. For the rest little has changed. Several countries – Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan and Algeria – are deemed “stable”, but only because their regimes remain firmly in control. The uprisings in Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and Libya have plunged those countries into various degrees of violent rebellion, crackdown and paralysis, with no gains in terms of rights.
Is there any grounds for optimism?
Arguably, the thrilling speed of what happened in Tunisia, then Egypt, created unrealistically high expectations. As William Hague said last week, this “will take a generation to work through… It’s not a computer game that comes to an end when you get bored.” Jordan’s former foreign minister, Marwan Muasher, noted in The New York Times that, unlike in eastern Europe in 1989, in the Arab world “there were no real political parties, no civil society institutions ready to take over… I do not like to call this the ‘Arab Spring’. I prefer to call it the ‘Arab Awakening’, and it is going to play out over the next ten to 15 years before it settles down… But I remain optimistic in the long run, because people have stopped feeling powerless.”
Is it time to lower our expectations, then?
Yes. The wave of revolutions that toppled communism in 1989 was followed by years of chaos – and that was with the model of democracy in neighbouring countries. Arab nations face extra challenges: how to organise relations between Islam and the state; how to avoid a descent into sectarianism; and how to share the great wealth that comes with oil revenues. No doubt tough times lie ahead, but according to Moroccan novelist Tahar Ben Jelloun, writing in Newsweek, the fundamental point is that the wave of spontaneous revolts was driven “by a yearning to stop living in submission, to stop being denied human dignity” – a powerful force that will prove impossible to contain. Jelloun also hails “the failure of Islamism – the alibi that had allowed Ben Ali and Mubarak to remain in charge and to do business with the West. Now we see that it was an illusion. Islamism was completely eclipsed by these revolts in which it played no part.” In Egypt, for example, the Muslim Brotherhood will be an electoral force, but only by “accepting the laws of a democracy that could make it politically redundant”.
Is the Arab Spring over?
No
1. The presidents of Tunisia and Egypt were ousted after decades of dictatorship and have now been brought to justice. Millions of people have been emancipated and free elections are coming.
2. The Arab world has changed irreversibly. Across the region, young people believe that the days when their aspirations are ignored and their future is decided by dictators are gone.
3. Western fears over Islamism are overcooked. The transition to democracy is already forcing Islamists in Egypt and Tunisia to the centre ground.
Yes
1. The idea of an Arab Spring was always an unrealistic, Western narrative. The dynastic despots (eg, Libya, Syria) are fighting back, while the monarchies (such as Jordan, Morocco and Oman) have done just enough in terms of reforms to cling on.
2. The West’s failure to challenge the Bahraini monarchy over its suppression of the Shia uprising there was crucial: it gave succour to other dictators, and proved a turning point.
3. The brutal example of Syria’s Assad and the stalemate in Libya have killed off the Arab Spring.