It was the notice that fascinated me. This is what it said. “Tsunami danger area. In the event of a tsunami, please proceed to higher ground.”
I was standing overlooking the Pacific Ocean on Seventeen Mile Drive. Skirting the Monterey Peninsula, south of San Francisco, this is one of the USA’s most exclusive addresses. Trim retirees occasionally emerged from their multi-million dollar mansions to shoot a little golf on the links at Pebble Beach. Cormorants swooped and dived over the ocean, pelicans in formation made stately progress across the waves, and sea lions bathed and barked upon the rocks.
It was a glorious scene. But I could not take my mind off this extraordinary notice. How had it got there? And why did I find it so disturbing?
Introducing the Department of Tsunami Alerts
Let’s consider for a moment how it must have got there. It probably started with the Indonesian tsunami in 2004. Somebody in the Californian government probably took note of the destruction that it wrought and thought he should do something to save his fellow citizens from a recurrence. No doubt a committee was formed, to respond to the tsunami. Government officials gathered together to discuss the matter. A strategic action plan was devised. Somebody with a good ear for the sort of language only ever used in public announcements was given the task of devising the wording.
This was approved by the committee. The government department of signage then set about manufacturing these notices. A new body was created to identify suitable spots for their display, on walls and posts along the coast. A team was sent out to fix them. And now that they are there, they must be looked after. They must be checked annually and repaired as necessary. Somewhere in the offices of the Californian state government is a new department for tsunami alerts, headed by a proud civil servant.
The whole exercise must have cost tens of thousands of dollars. And for what? I suppose it is just possible that a tsunami will sweep towards Monterey at some time in the next century. Let’s put the chance of its doing so at one in 100. I suppose there is just a chance, say one in 100 again, that somebody will be standing by that very notice at just the moment when the giant wave hoves into view. I suppose there is just a chance, say one in a hundred again, that somebody will be standing by that very notice at just the moment when the giant wave hoves into view. And I concede the possibility – and odds of one in a hundred are short for this – that this person will have never heard of a tsunami and will stand rooted to the spot, taking photographs and admiring the glory of this natural phenomenon.
So we have a one in a million chance that this sign will actually send some fortunate person scurrying over the fairways of Pebble Beach to the safety of the hills beyond, rather than being swept to a watery grave.
Governments will be brought to heel for this waste
I can hardly conceive of a greater waste of public money than this. Can there be anybody who seriously believes that the best way, in this age of digital information, of delivering public messages is by sticking notices up at random locations? Can this possibly be anything more than an example of the nanny state, and of public officials covering their legal backsides against the very remotest of possibilities?
Now it might seem odd to give so much thought to a single road sign. But here’s my point. This whole thing would be laughable if it were not symptomatic of the malaise into which Western economies have fallen.
Investors, financiers, business men and women have had enough of this crazy public spending. They have finally lost patience with the wastefulness and irresponsibility of government. And this is part of the reason why markets are falling right now. We are on strike. Investors are refusing to invest. Business leaders are refusing to sanction corporate expansion and won’t hire new staff. It’s a battle. And the outcome will determine our financial future for the next decade and beyond.
I am glad that this is happening. I, too, am sick of incompetent, deceitful, reckless government. I am fed up with seeing governments spend money that they do not even have in the first place on ludicrous schemes that serve no useful purpose. And I am glad too because this is a battle that the markets will win. Kicking and screaming, politicians will finally be brought to heel. And it will be very good news for equity investors – as I will explain on Thursday.
• This article is taken from Tom Bulford’s free twice-weekly small-cap investment email The Penny Sleuth. Sign up to The Penny Sleuth here.
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