The recent low profile of supreme leader Kim Jong-un and a visit to the South by his top deputies have fuelled speculation about power games in the hermit state, writes Simon Wilson.
Where did Kim go?
That’s what all Korea-watchers have wanted to know for the last few weeks. After his last appearance in public on 3 September, the young dictator disappeared from public view, fuelling feverish speculation over what power games might be playing out in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Was Kim just suffering from gout or an ankle injury or from something more serious? Had he been the victim of a palace coup? Perhaps his sister, Kim Yo-jong, has taken charge?
But he’s OK after all?
Probably. Photos released this week show Kim giving “field guidance” on a visit to a newly built residential development for scientists. He’s looking pasty and using a walking stick; moreover, North Korean media only released still images, so it’s impossible to say whether he can in fact walk, or merely stand for short periods.
But the pictures indicate that his power remains undiminished – especially given that one of the other men featured, hanging on Kim’s every word, is Hwang Pyong So.
He’s the head of the political bureau of the Korean People’s Army and probably the North’s second-in-command, and was mooted by some analysts as a possible challenger to Kim’s rule.
Why do some consider Hwang a challenger?
Partly because of his extraordinary recent rise; he’s been promoted five times over the past year. And partly because of a high-profile visit to South Korea last week – at the height of the mystery surrounding Kim’s absence – by Hwang and two other senior officials.
The three turned up more or less unannounced at the closing ceremony of the Asian Games in Incheon, South Korea, on 4 October, in a mission apparently aimed at kick-starting a thaw with the South.
This was the first visit for the two men believed to be Kim’s de-facto deputies: Choe Ryong-hae (who was wrongly reported to have been purged in May) and Hwang himself.
Why did this trip matter?
Because of the seniority of the men involved. And because analysts suspect the North’s surprise diplomatic overture, which was warmly welcomed by the South, could herald a transformation in the terrible inter-Korean relations since Park Geun-hye took over as South Korean president last year.
Of course, signs of warming between the two Koreas are not infrequent, and are generally followed by a rapid re-freezing. However, the trip to the South (at which the North promised to restart talks soon, following months of refusals) and the uncertainty over Kim’s health have refocused attention on how long the North Korean state can survive, and what might happen if the Kim regime collapses.
When might that be?
Nobody knows. Kim has no clear successor, raising the risks of factional fighting, loss of control of nuclear weapons and perhaps North Korea lashing out at its neighbours.
South Korea and its key ally the United States have detailed military contingency plans in place for several troubling scenarios (including regime collapse, attempted invasion of South Korea, and mass migrations of the North’s population) as, it may be presumed, does the DPRK’s only ally, its northern neighbour China.
What holds North Korea together?
The Kim regime constantly fosters a sense of paranoia and victimhood; that the country is a noble experiment that faces a daily existential struggle against the imperialist US and its South Korean puppet.
The sheer intensity of the Kim personality cult, which comes as a shock even to forewarned first-time visitors to the DPRK, plays a major part. Lastly, and crucially, the Pyongyang elites are kept sweet with financial perks and luxury goods. If that changes, all bets are off (see below).
Is reunification on the cards?
Not in the short term. But there is speculation that the DPRK is looking to patch up its relations with the South as its relations with China sour. So last week’s tentative signs of a warmer relationship had ripples in the Seoul stockmarket.
Hyundai Merchant Marine, for example, the majority shareholder in Hyundai Asan, which invests in construction projects in North Korea, saw its share price surge by almost 25% in three days. And money has been flowing into reunification-themed funds this year.
In June, President Park referred to an economic “jackpot” if the two Koreas reunited. That may be wishful thinking: the lesson of Germany is surely that reunification can bring great costs (estimated in Germany’s case at $2trn over two decades).
Nevertheless, a lowering of tensions between the North and South could well benefit the Korean market.
Where is North Korea getting its cash?
All the signs are that the criminal rackets the Kim regime once relied on to pay off its elite supporters (mainly weapons, drugs and counterfeit money – the activities controlled by the regime’s notorious Office 39) are drying up, which means its hard currency income is slowing to a trickle.
That could be ominous for Kim, even if – or especially if – the DPRK’s tentative economic reforms continue to lead to a mild improvement in conditions in the capital.
Social historians often tell us that revolutions are far more likely in times of modest improvements and rising expectations than in those of abject desperation. And, of course, as no less an authority than Leon Trotsky once observed, a revolution is always impossible until it’s inevitable.