What’s this?
These are the projected voting intentions for Greece’s upcoming election on 25 January:
According to The Economist, the question has now shifted from “will Syriza win?” to “who will be their coalition partner?”. At present, the PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) “is already shaping up as the most likely contender” but it’s still undecided.
What does this mean?
Even if Syriza wins, the threat of Grexit seems to have abated for now. Syriza’s leader, Alexis Tspiras, the most likely winner of the election has “adopted a more conciliatory tone”, says Bloomberg View
. In fact, over the weekend, “he pledged to maintain the country’s euro membership and to honor Greece’s debt obligations.”
Is Grexit now off the table?
Reuters says ratings agency Moodys has declared a Greek exit is “unlikely”. But just because the danger has abated for the moment doesn’t mean it will stay that way.
The Wall Street Journal thinks a Grexit could even happen accidentally if, by February, Greece fails to secure further agreement with the Troika (a collective term for the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund).