The bookies are not making prices today. I will update these tomorrow.
But here’s my present thinking: the 1983 election is remembered for Michael Foot’s donkey jacket; in 1992, Kinnock’s triumphalist speech in Sheffield was a defining moment; after the 2015 election we will always associate Miliband with a tombstone of promises.
It has been a while since I first forecast the results on 7 May. One Royal baby later, little else has happened to alter my opinion. My latest prediction is as follows:
| Party | May 2015 forecast |
May 2015 Scotland forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 302 | 3 |
| Labour | 248 | 6 |
| SNP | 46 | 46 |
| Liberal Democrats | 27 | 4 |
| DUP | 9 | – |
| Sinn Fein | 5 | – |
| SDLP | 3 | – |
| Independent | 1 | – |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | – |
| Alliance | 0 | – |
| Green | 1 | – |
| Respect | 0 | – |
| Speaker | 1 | – |
| Ukip | 3 | – |
| Total | 650 | 59 |
Tories + Lib Dem = 329 (a majority) + DUP if necessary
Labour + SNP + Others = 303 maximum.
The only real changes since November have been the surge in SNP support (now possibly wilting) and a failure by UKIP to “follow through” – these more or less cancel each other out. The other minority parties are of no consequence.
For all the noise and bluster, my conclusion then is overall the same today: Labour cannot govern, alone or in alliance; and the Tories can only be sure of governing in coalition with the Lib Dems (that will be made harder if Nick Clegg loses his seat).
Cameron could and should go it alone, or insist on implementing the boundary changes as the price of coalition – and be prepared for another election if he can’t. He could win that outright. I believe that he’ll make the Queen’s speech on 27 May – and might win an overall majority anyway.