It is disappointing that my last bulletin to long-suffering readers should be inconclusive. Even the odds and spreads offer little guidance – they are of little more value than the polls, which are useless.
The polls
YouGov’s Peter Kellner, the best regarded of the national pollsters, this morning gave us his forecasts:
| Conservative | 284* |
| Labour | 263 |
| Liberal Democrats | 31 |
| SNP | 48 |
| Ukip | 2 |
| Plaid Cymru | 3 |
| Green | 1 |
| Northern Ireland | 18 |
| (of which the DUP 9) | |
| * Presumably including the Speaker | |
TOTAL 650
Permutations (323 needed for a majority)
Tory 283 + LibDem (31) = 314 + DUP (9) = 323
(UKIP would be ignored, but might be needed)
Labour 263 + SNP (48) = 311 + others? (13) = 324
(Question: where would the LibDems fit into this?)
Conclusion: Cameron could stay on, provided Clegg retains his seat (to be declared at 04:30 tomorrow morning).
The odds (averaged at 08:00 this morning)
| No overall majority: | 1-33 (overwhelming favourite) | |
| Most seats: | Tory | 1-5 (only slightly less certain) |
| Labour | 3-1 (forget it) | |
| A minority government: | Led by Cameron | 9-2 (unlikely) |
| Led by Miliband | 6-4 (more likely) | |
| A majority government: | Led by Cameron | 10-1 (forget it) |
| Led by Miliband | 6-4 (a silly price) | |
Conclusion: take your pick, Miliband preferred.
The spreads (averaged at 09:30 this morning)
Seats
Tory 288.5-291.5 (-2)
Labour 262-265 (-0.5)
LibDem 26-28 (+0.5)
SNP 46-48 (-0.5)
UKIP 2.3-3.8 (unchanged)
Permutations (using middle prices):
Tory 290 + LibDem (29) = 319
Labour 264 + SNP (47) = 311 (but no coalition)
Lib Dems have said they won’t work with SNP
Conclusion: on this result Cameron would stay on.
Cameron will probably just squeak in, almost anything Miliband tries will be untenable. I continue to believe however, that if there are any surprises, the Tories and Lib Dems will do better than expected, and that the SNP will do worse.
The markets (at 09:30 this morning)
£ is down 0.3% against the €
£ is down 0.2% against the US$
The FTSE 100 is down 51 points
Conclusion: on tenterhooks, but resilient.
The first poll result is likely to be Sunderland at 23:00 this evening. It won’t tell us much. From 03:00 onwards the overall result will become increasingly plain.