David Cameron and Nicola Sturgeon may be smiling after the election results, but Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage have all said that they will resign the leaderships of their respective parties. Who could succeed them?
What’s happened?
Despite predictions of a close election leading to a hung parliament, the Conservatives won a decisive victory in the popular vote and have achieved an overall majority. The SNP also achieved a landslide victory, winning 56 out of 59 seats.
However, it was a very different story for the other three parties: Labour, Liberal Democrats and Ukip. Labour’s near wipe out in Scotland resulted in a net loss of seats in the UK. The Liberal Democrats saw their share of the vote fall by nearly two-thirds, and lost all but eight seats.
And while Ukip polled a record number of votes, it failed to retain one of the seats that it won at last year’s by-election, and Nigel Farage failed to win in South Thanet.
As a result, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Farage have all announced that they will step down as leaders.
Who will be the next Labour leader?
Shadow Health Minister Andy Burnham is current the favourite, although he is regarded as being to the left of Ed Miliband, and his plans for integrating health and social care are controversial.Chuka Umunna, the Shadow Business secretary, is hotly tipped. However, he has only been an MP for five years (though that didn’t stop David Cameron) and may be simply too young at only 36.
Yvette Cooper, the wife of former Chancellor Ed Balls (who lost his seat) is another possibility, though she is seen as lacking charisma. Dan Jarvis, who came into the Commons in 2011, is seen as a long-shot, with his ex-military background possibly attracting voters.
Had he not stood down as an MP in 2013, David Miliband would have been the obvious choice. Butthe problems of having a non-MP as leader, and his brother’s electoral failure, probably doom his chances.
Other potential candidates include: Liz Kendall, Rachael Reeves and Stella Creasey.
So, who will succeed Farage as the head of Ukip?
Nigel Farage has gone on record to say that Ukip should be led by a MP. This would seem to make Douglas Carswell the only option. However, Carswell has stated that he is uninterested in the leadership, and his libertarian views may alienate many Ukip supporters. The same goes for city lawyer Steven Woolfe.
Deputy chair Suzanne Evans has been named interim leader, and a good performance in the next few months could ensure she takes the top job permanently. But she may alienate the party’s supporters in the north.
In the end, Nigel Farage may decided that he is the only one who can keep Ukip together, and contest the leadership himself. However, health problems, and the emotional wear of a bruising campaign, may lead him to retire for good.
And what about the Lib Dems?
The loss of so many high-profile Lib Dems, including Vince Cable, Simon Hughes and Danny Alexander, means that the Lib Dems have very few options. It seems to be a two-horse race between Tim Farron and Norman Lamb.
Tim Farron has the advantage that his refusal to take a ministerial role in the recent coalition could help his party move on from its partnership with the Conservatives. In contrast, Norman Lamb is backed by senior figures, including Menzies Campbell, (who was briefly leader) and is seen as the continuity candidate (though whether this is a positive or negative remains to be seen)
Finally, who will succeed David Cameron?
David Cameron may have won, but he has pledged not to run for a third term in office. This means that there will be a contest to replace him at some point.
At the moment, the betting market favourites are London Mayor (an newly elected MP for Uxbridge) Boris Johnson, Home Secretary Theresa May, Chancellor George Osborne and Culture Secretary Sajid Javid. At the moment, May and Javid look the best value.