“Global investors are never going to see a country of this size and sophistication open up again,” says Charles Roberts of Renaissance Capital. The nuclear deal between Iran and the West promises to give investors access to an economy bigger than Thailand’s and with oil reserves rivalling Canada’s. And after 12 years out in the cold, thanks to crippling sanctions, it will have lots of catching up to do.
“The impact on domestic consumption, investment and trade in Iran would be enormous,” say economists Khatija Haque and Jean Paul Pigat on Bloomberg. Emirates NBD reckons that annual growth could reach 8% after 2016.
There is far more to this story than oil, says Andrew Critchlow in The Daily Telegraph. Iran has developed a broad industrial base, with a car industry that produces over a million vehicles a year, while investors are also eyeing up petrochemicals and engineering.
The population numbers around 80 million and half of university students are female. The stockmarket, meanwhile, is one of the region’s largest, with a market capitalisation of $100bn and around 300 listed companies. The market is now worth just 28% of GDP, a far lower figure than in most other countries.
“If Iran transitions from a fringe market… to an open one with a size commensurate with its economy, the upside could be huge,” says Asa Fitch in The Wall Street Journal. Charlemagne Capital plans to set up a fund providing access to Iran with Turquoise Partners, a Tehran-based investment group, in the near future.