Gold prices have rebounded since the poor US payroll data for May came out last week. They are now close to a one-year high around $1,300 an ounce. The jobs report made an imminent interest-rate rise by the US Federal Reserve far less likely. Rising rates make gold, which pays no yield, less attractive, so a delay is good news for the yellow metal. A broader point is that higher interest rates are a sign that the economy is returning to normal, which bodes ill for an asset that thrives on bad news.
On that subject, former Bank of England governor Mervyn King, rather unusually for a central banker, has issued a stark reminder of the importance of holding some gold as portfolio insurance. It is typically uncorrelated with other assets, and it has been a store of value for thousands of years. “Try to think through what mix of assets gives you the chance of surviving some big event,” he says.
“I am very struck by the fact that over many years central banks, governments and individuals have always, despite the protestation of economists, held some gold in their portfolio… when unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept… I think that’s why even central banks have always had a role in their portfolios for gold.”
In the event of “some awful conflagration”, he concluded, you will need an asset that, unlike cash, equities or bonds, is not “dependent on the goodwill of other countries”.