Tristram Hunt’s decision to stand down as MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central has prompted a lot of soul-searching in the national press – and caused a stir in the betting markets. While Ladbrokes have Labour as the 4/5 favourites to win (55%), Ukip are in second place on 9/4 (30%). Even more surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats are at 7/1 (12.5%), with the Tories trailing in at 10/1 (9%).
It’s true that Corbyn’s disastrous leadership has kneecapped Labour. Nevertheless, this has been a safe Labour seat since it was formed in 1950. Even during the days of Michael Foot, Labour got 48% of the vote, and as late as 2005 Labour was pulling in over 50%. Of course, Labour only got 38% at the last election, but the Oldham West and Royton by-election, where Labour shocked everyone by increasing their majority, demonstrated that the Kippers have a natural ceiling in the North.
Similarly, anyone who thinks that the Liberal Democrats have half a chance here frankly needs their head examined. With 65% of the voters in the area voting to Leave, this is about as far from Richmond as you can get. Indeed, their best performance in the seat was in 2005 when they got 21.5%.
In fact, if Labour is under threat it’s going to be from the Tories, who will be anxious to get ahead of Ukip (Ukip narrowly beat the Tories into third place at the last election).
Overall, I’d advise you to split your money between Labour and the Tories. The best odds are 5/6 on Labour with Betfred and 11/1 from William Hill on the Tories. This gives you combined odds of 62.8% (compared with 64.6% with Ladbrokes). As I’ve said before, my trick with split bets is to weigh them according to the odds. So, if you normally bet £10 per unit, I’d put £8.67 on Labour and £1.23 on the Tories. That way you win the same amount of money whichever party prevails.