Forget the “Tory wobble” posited in The Times leader today, and the razzmatazz about Ed Miliband being willing (and able) to rely upon the SNP to deliver a Queen’s Speech – the spreads say that he will not.
An administration led by David Cameron, in coalition with the LibDems and DUP, remains the most likely outcome:
| Conservative | 285.5-289.5 (+1) |
| Labour | 269.5-273.5 |
| LibDem | 24-26 |
| SNP | 45-7 (-0.5) |
| Ukip | 3.6-5.1 (-0.1) |
| DUP | 8-9 |
As the figures above show, we’ve seen a sclerotic but favourable move to the Tories, likely to be quickened by ‘incumbent advantage’ (1-2%) as 7 May approaches. Has Miliband’s first attempt to talk about foreign policy proved to be a mistake? The result is a 15-seat lead for Cameron for the first time in four months. Is this a ‘surge’? Also note the slight fall in support for the SNP and Ukip (it’s important).
The maths, at current offer prices (323 needed):
| Conservative | 289 + 26 = 315 + 9 (DUP) = (coalition) 324 |
| Labour | 273 + 47 = 320 + ? (no coalition) |
Nicola Sturgeon can huff and puff, and Miliband can bluster, but Ed refuses to enter into a bankable coalition with the SNP. The LibDems/DUP have ruled out any form of deal with the SNP too. And although no party will touch Ukip, Farage (if he wins Thanet) will always vote with the Tories.
So I still believe that Cameron will bluff his way into see the Queen, and that Miliband will not. Cameron just needs to redouble his passion and avoid cock-ups if he wants to win. To feel comfortable, the Tories must pick up another ten to 15 seats – which I think they might. My target remains 300.
As for Scotland, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson is doing a good job – she provides a jollier, more truthful and principled opposition to Nicola Sturgeon than any other party leader north of the border. The Tories will outpoll the LibDems by a margin; and tactical voting may be effective.
In short, the Tories may well do better in Scotland than the polls indicate – the polling booth is like a lavatory: no one knows precisely what the occupant will do in private.