Whether Bill Gross, the ‘Bond King’, who recently left giant fund manager Pimco, can live up to his reputation in his new job at Janus is yet to be seen. But “he remains one of the most educated, engaged and insightful students of markets”, says Lauren Rublin in Barron’s.
After the crash, Gross warned us to expect a weak recovery – a ‘new normal’, as he called it. So far he’s been right, and he doesn’t expect that to change soon.
The US is unlikely to shift into a higher gear. The rest of the world is “at zero or less”, and America isn’t an island. It is also “still highly levered” (borrowing is high), while the ageing population reduces demand. “Most boomers need health care, but they don’t need another house or a third car.”
Meanwhile, technology has hurt job growth – “Apple is a wonderful company, but it doesn’t hire as many people as the old General Motors” – and globalisation appears to have hit its limits.
Central banks will have to keep interest rates “lower for longer”, because of all this, and don’t expect rates to return to their old highs. Bonds protect “against inflation and disaster”, says Gross. “My low-growth outlook suggests [they] will earn their coupon.”