Nouriel Roubini, the über-bearish economics professor and financial pundit, warns that a “perfect storm” may be about to hit the global economy.
In a typically pessimistic outlook from ‘Dr. Doom’, Roubini predicted that problems in China, the US and Europe could “combine to stunt growth in 2013”.
When it comes to America, Roubini’s big worry is that a bond market “revolt” will push up the country’s borrowing costs.
“We’re still running over a trillion-dollar budget deficit… The risk is at some point, the bond market vigilantes are going to wake up in the US, like they did in Europe, pushing interest rates higher and crowding out the recovery.”
The Turkish-born New York University professor feels that Europe is already past that point and needs to restructure its peripheral members’ debt urgently.
Even China, whose economy is growing rapidly, has debt worries. Roubini notes that it has “a massive non-performing loan problem in the banking system”. It also needs to wean itself off excessive infrastructure spending and increase consumption. And this comes at a time while China is negotiating “a delicate political transition of the leadership. If it doesn’t negotiate these challenges, “there will be a hard landing” in 2013.
Yet not all investors will be worried by this warning. Roubini’s trademark bearishness has also led to some duff calls – most notably in July 2010 when he predicted “market surprises on the downside” and weaker economic growth.