Oil ruled the 20th century; the shortage of oil will rule the 21st…
So began this excellent article by my company chairman Lord William Rees-Mogg in his weekly column in The Times on Monday. This being a pet subject of mine, I was pleased to see that I agreed with pretty much everything he said.
I am not mentioning this article because I am angling for a pay rise or a promotion. I am actually mentioning it because I want to reveal a secret of mine – a guilty secret pleasure…
One of my guilty pleasures when I read these newspaper websites is looking at the comments below the pieces and laughing at the comments from members of the general public. There really are some people with “interesting” views out there. This is particularly true of the Daily Mail’s website, where reader comments can prove to be a mine of mirth and amusement.
However, what struck me about the comments relating to Lord Rees-Mogg’s article was how well informed the posters actually were on the subject. They certainly seem to have a clearer indication of the problems facing the world than the majority of politicians that are making the decisions that matter.
Indeed, I actually learnt something when I was reading these postings – a rare event indeed.
Energy and the fall of civilisations
One of the posters referred to someone I had never heard before, so I decided to look him up. The man was Admiral Hyman Rickover and the poster was discussing a speech he made in 1957 – exactly 50 years ago. He is now my new hero.
The Admiral was known as the father of the nuclear navy. As director of the Naval Reactors Branch he developed the world’s first nuclear powered submarine, USS Nautilus, which launched in 1955. He was a nuclear guy through and through.
But what really guaranteed him a place in history is one of the most forward-looking speeches ever given. Remember, this was given in 1957…
‘The United States with only 5% of the world’s population uses one-third of the world’s total energy output. This accounts for America’s high standard of living.
“Man’s first step up the ladder of civilization dates from his discovery of fire and his domestication of animals. Then slave labour was used to provide more energy. A reduction in per capita energy consumption always marks a decline in civilization.
“The exhaustion of wood fuel is said to explain the fall of the Mayan civilization. The depletion of forests for fuel in India and China lessened their energy base and lowered their civilizations…
He continued…
“It is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates total fossil fuel reserves… are likely to run out at some time between 2000 and 2050. Oil and natural gas will disappear first; coal last. Nuclear fuels would seem to be the answer. But they have their drawbacks. They can’t be used in small machines, such as cars, trucks, buses, tractors. We must remember that the oil we use in the United States in one year took nature 14,000,000 years to create.”
Politicians must act on oil alternatives
The Admiral hit the nail on the head regarding the biggest problem of the 21st century a stunning 50 years ago – but no-one appeared to listen to him. Just like the postings after Lord Rees-Mogg’s article, no-one with the power to get a new nuclear power station built to instigate a new clean coal facility appears to be listening to the increasing mountain of evidence. Politicians, after all, never look further than the next election.
There have always been people warning of the upcoming energy crunch – it was just that people with the power to make the changes we need have been keeping their heads buried in the sand. The US pro-oil lobby has much to answer for.
Let’s hope the powers that be wake up and start to build new nuclear power stations, employ clean coal technology and use alternatives such as geothermal power before it really is too late. After all, according to the International Energy Agency, we only have five years left.
By Garry White for his ‘Garry Writes’ newsletter. To find out more about his monthly newsletter, Outstanding Investments, which expands on his views and makes specific recommendations in the resource, infrastructure and biotech sectors, click here: Outstanding Investments
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