The US dollar gained on all its most-traded rivals last week, and traders wait to see if the currency will be able to continue its bullish run in the coming week. Analysts expected that the greenback will be mainly driven by macroeconomic fundamentals, though politics may also affect the US currency.
The most anticipated report is the first (advance) estimate of US gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2018. Economists predicted that the report will show a slowdown of economic growth to 2.0% from 2.9% in the previous three months. Yet if the actual data comes out better then the dollar will likely get a significant boost. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the report on Friday.
As for other macroeconomic reports, Markit will release its flash estimates for the Purchasing Managers’ Indices in March on Monday. Experts predicted that the manufacturing PMI will slip a bit from 55.6 to 55.2, while the services PMI will advance a little from 54.0 to 54.3. It is important to note that both indicators are expected to stay safely in the expansionary territory above the neutral 50.0 level.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence due to release on Tuesday is expected to decline from 127.7 to 126.0 this month. Specialists estimated ahead of the official report, released on Thursday, that core durable goods orders rose 0.5% in March, two times slower than in February.
Solid performance of the US economy reinforced the outlook for another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the near future. According to CME FedWatch, chances for a hike in June are as high as 98.4%.
All in all, fundamentals did not look that bad for the US dollar, therefore Daily FX issued a bullish forecast on the currency.
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