Betting on politics: Some good bets on the US mid-terms

Paddy Power has scaled back its political bets a bit, but it is still offering markets on all the Senate races in the upcoming elections. What’s more, some of its odds are quite generous. For example, it has the Democrats at 1/10 (90.9%) to win in Massachusetts. While this may seem short odds, you have to remember that this is one of the “bluest” states in America, and the incumbent is possible presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren. Go ahead and fill your boots.

Another contest that should be pretty straightforward for the Democrats is Maryland, a state where Trump got a third of the vote in 2016, and no Republican presidential candidate has triumphed in the last 30 years. Polls show that the incumbent Ben Cardin has got a relatively good approval rating, while the Republican candidate is an unknown university professor. So the odds on the Democrats should be a lot shorter than the 1/10 (90.9%) that Paddy Power is offering. Again, you should snap this bet up.
Virginia is a little more complicated. From 1968 until the 2008 election it voted solidly Republican in presidential elections. However, population growth in northern Virginia and the Washington DC suburbs means that it is increasingly leaning towards the Democrats. In any case, incumbent Tim Kaine leads Trump fanatic Republican Corey Stewart in the polls by nearly 20 percentage points. This means that Paddy Power’s 1/7 (87.5%) is actually pretty good value.