I recently made the case that the Fed needs to pause in its ‘measured tightening’ cycle for at least the September Fed meeting, until we can see the full effects of Katrina and the oil …
Will The Fed Freeze Interest Rates?
Koizumi Landslide Boosts Japanese Stocks
Japan’s Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi has “won an overwhelming election victory”, said The Times. The win represents the first time the Liberal Democratic Party has had an “outright majority” since 1990, and is “a vindication” …
Katrina May Be A Tipping Point for the US
Never in modern history has the world’s leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. A saving-short US economy has long pushed the envelope in drawing on foreign capital to subsidise excess …
US Consumers Are Running on Empty
The role of American consumers in promoting economic growth in the U.S. and, indeed, in many export-driven foreign countries will be especially significant in coming quarters. The effects of the previous huge federal tax cuts …
Upbeat US Analysts Ignore Katrina’s Reality
Objective discussion of North American financial and economic matters is often made insuperably difficult by the inherent optimism of so many resident commentators and players. Possession of an invariably sunny disposition is in most respects …
High Oil Price Will Squeeze Global Growth
In response to a major reworking of our energy price assumptions, we are making our first meaningful cuts to the global growth prognosis in quite some time. This downward revision is not an event-driven response …