Within a decade, the US will be “heavily dependent” on African oil, says Christopher Thompson in the New Statesman. “Little wonder the Pentagon is preparing a strategy for the region.” This “dramatic move” is a response to “myriad threats”: competition from Asia; “resource nationalism” in Russia and South America; and instability in the Middle East that threatens to spill over into Africa. At the moment the Pentagon has five Unified Combatant Commands around the world, with responsibility for Africa “divided awkwardly” among three. Africom, expected to become operative by mid-2008, will create a unified military command for Africa and “significantly increase“ the US military presence.
The US defence establishment is alarmed by the terrorism threat posed by the creeping radicalisation of Africa’s Muslims; this has been imbued with “particular emergency” because of America’s increasing dependency on African oil. Last year, Africa provided over 15% of US oil imports. Recent explorations in the Gulf of Guinea (which includes Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Angola) indicate reserves that could account for 25%-35% of US imports within the next decade – more than supplied by the entire Middle East. Reserves are high quality and easily accessible, but the region is also one of the most unstable. The Niger Delta is a “virtual war zone” as gangs battle for access to pipelines, steal fuel and demand a bigger cut of the petrodollar. Nor is America the only interested party: Africa’s oil is also being “eyed covetously” by Asia. The Pentagon must proceed cautiously, says Thompson. Africom is to include a “substantial” humanitarian component, aimed partly at minimising unrest, but a US military presence is bound to “raise hackles” in some countries, which will see the US as an imperial exploiter. In any case, the US may not prove a match for China, which is happy to offer “billions in soft loans – all with no strings attached – to secure lucrative acreage“.