FOMC Minutes Show that Fed Worry

The release of the FOMC minutes for January 29/30 meeting today gave traders more insight about the Fed’s vision and strategy. Dollar started to lose its positions right after the release and shortly reversed its daily gain against euro.

In the released document, members of the committee expressed a worry about the global slowdown of the advanced economies, current state of the housing, consumer and financial sectors. Long-term securities markets, according to minutes, are also experiencing the excess volatility:

Economic growth in the advanced foreign economies appeared to have slowed in the fourth quarter, with recent data on household expenditures and retail sales weakening on balance and consumers and businesses considerably less upbeat about growth prospects… In particular, the drop in housing activity had intensified, factory output had weakened, news on business investment had been soft, and conditions in labor markets appeared to have deteriorated. In addition, consumer confidence had remained low and business confidence appeared to have worsened. Although the functioning of money markets had improved notably, strains remained evident in a number of other financial markets, and credit conditions had become generally more restrictive. Against this backdrop, participants expected economic growth to remain weak in the first half of this year before picking up in the second half, aided in part by a more accommodative stance of monetary policy and by likely fiscal stimulus.

In the short-term lending market, committee members see more recovering developments that should positively affect some sectors of economy and will lower the unnecessary volatility.

The minutes release spurred anti-dollar speculations on Forex, as traders may now expect more interest rate cuts by the Fed. Dollar traded at 1.4682 against euro before the release and is now trading at 1.4719.

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