Ireland will likely remain a potential flash-point this week. Expect more reassuring noises from Europe’s leaders if Irish bond yields start ticking higher again.
But the biggest economic story of the week is likely to be inflation, with key data out on both sides of the Atlantic. On Tuesday, Britain’s various inflation figures for October are out.
Annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation, which the Bank of England (BoE) is meant to try to keep to between 1% and 3%, is expected to come in at 3.1%, reports Charles Stanley, from 3.1% in September.
The other important figure to watch is the Retail Price Index (RPI). This is arguably a better measure of the cost of living – it includes mortgage costs, for example. The City reckons we’ll see a reading of 4.5%, from 4.6% in September.
However, inflation has had a nasty habit of overshooting expectations in recent months. And the BoE as good as admitted last week that it has little idea of where it’s going next in its quarterly inflation report. We’ll get a better idea on how individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee are feeling on Wednesday, when the minutes from the last meeting are released. So far only one member, Andrew Sentance, has called for rates to be raised.
Any big surprises to the upside are likely to bolster the pound (higher inflation means higher interest rates – at least, it usually does). But data on unemployment, out on Wednesday, could scupper any rally if it looks as though the economy is slowing down again.
With the coalition planning to cut half a million public sector jobs, the government is hoping that the private sector can pick up the slack in terms of job creation.
Last month’s figures were mixed with overall unemployment falling to 7.7% but a rise in the number of benefit claimants.
In among the employment data, another key figure to watch is that on earnings. If it looks like wage increases are picking up steam, that’ll be another warning sign that the BoE’s benign attitude to inflation is becoming dangerously complacent.
One of the driving forces behind the coalition’s public sector purge is the UK’s deficit – how much the country overspends compared to annual tax receipts. On Thursday, the Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (PSNCR) and the Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) data will tell us how much Britain had to borrow last month.