The National League for Democracy (NLD), a party led by democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi, won resounding victories in 45 by-elections in Myanmar, or Burma. These were the first polls the NLD has contested since 1990, when it won a general election but was then banned from taking power by the military.
What the commentators said
Only a year ago, Myanmar was “a quiet, fearful military dictatorship”, said Economist.com. But new president Thein Sein has embarked on a reform programme including the release of political prisoners, elections, and economic liberalisation. This month saw the flotation of the Burmese currency, the kyat, on the currency market. The previous, strong official fixed rate was available only to state-owned enterprises, putting private firms at a disadvantage.
Meanwhile, a new law is likely to allow foreigners to set up shop without a local business partner. These threats to vested interests suggest that “the reform agenda has strong support throughout the leadership”, sad Roberto Herrera-Lim on Eurasia.foreignpolicy.com.
The hope now is that the NLD’s “untroubled” campaign will prompt the lifting of economic sanctions by Europe and the US, said Lex in the FT, in turn spurring further foreign investment. When the US lifted its embargo on Vietnam in 1994, growth jumped to an average of 8.3% in each of the next five years, from 6.5% before.
And the output of Myanmar’s resource-rich economy is still only 40% of Vietnam’s; just 4% of the 62 million-strong population have a mobile. Still, potential investors shouldn’t get too carried away until it’s clear reforms are irreversible: in 1990 the military decided it felt threatened by the opening-up process.