Gold has slid to around $1,550 an ounce, a level not seen since last December. It remains almost a fifth below its record of last summer. But don’t write off the decade-long bull run just yet.
The latest dip was a result of short-term speculators, who tend to dominate the paper (futures) market, bailing out, as Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank points out. These rattled investors, perhaps under pressure to cash in a highly liquid asset, have fled.
But inflows into exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold, which tend to reflect long-term investment, have held up well. What’s more, “the fundamental factors that have driven the gold bull market… remain very much in place”, says Morgan Stanley.
Fears of another banking crisis amid a Greek exit from the eurozone are growing. This also raises the likelihood of further central bank action to calm markets and alleviate a possible slump. Money printing, along with the European Central Bank’s large liquidity injections for the banking system, has been good for gold. And real interest rates are negative in much of the developed world, which will also fuel fears of an eventual jump in inflation.
So the global financial and monetary system is still far from normalising, and could well deteriorate further. Tight supplies also bode well for gold. “We are buyers of gold here,” says Morgan Stanley.