The latest Ashcroft poll shows what looks like a surge for the Tories, says Adrian Sykes. But the bookies and spread betting don’t reflect that.
I have avoided commenting on the polls, as I think they are struggling – the impact of the minor parties on the two majors and voter loyalty to incumbent Liberal Democrat MPs is impossible to predict. This is the reason I prefer to ‘follow the money’, monitoring the odds and spread betting instead.
I made an exception last night, as the latest Ashcroft poll shows what might develop into a last-minute surge by the Tories. These polls are the most detailed, and certainly the pick of the bunch. They have also consistently shown the Tories to be in trouble:
| Conservative | 36% | (+2) probably from Ukip |
| Labour | 30% | (unchanged) |
| LibDem | 9% | (-1) |
| Ukip | 11% | (-2) |
| Green | 7% | (+3) probably from the LibDems |
(36% is enough for the Tories to win 300 seats, and a majority in coalition with the LibDems).
In an aside, Ashcroft says that Mark Reckless will lose Rochester and Strood. Farage is looking a bit iffy in Thanet, too. This morning, despite the poll, spreads are broadly unchanged (Tories and Labour both slightly easier, SNP +2). As for the betting odds:
| No overall majority: | 1/14 | perceived certainty | |
| Most seats: | Conservative | 1/4 | near certainty |
| Labour | 14/5 | unlikely | |
| Minority government: | Led by Cameron | 5/1 | |
| Led by Miliband | 13/8 | favourite | |
| Coalition: | Conservative/LibDem | 3/1 | second fvourite |
| Labour/LibDem | 5/1 | not with the SNP | |
| Overall majority: | Conservative | 7/1 | |
| Labour | 50/1 |
So nothing you didn’t know already – it’s still knife-edge stuff. Not even US political prognosticating superstar Nate Silver is forecasting an outright winner.