Revised figures for the third quarter show that the Japanese economy grew at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter rather than shrinking by 0.2%, as previously thought. This means the country avoided a technical recession. The second quarter contraction was also slightly less severe than thought (-0.1%, rather than -0.2%).
The big change came in investment, which apparently increased by 1.3%, instead of falling by 0.6%. The new figures also suggested that the fall in inventories (company stockpiles) was smaller than the original estimate.
What the commentators said
“In an economy where trend growth is only slightly above zero, like Japan’s, revisions can more easily make the difference between an increase in output and a decline,” said The New York Times’s Jonathan Soble. However, the changes are “larger than some in the past”. They will also “relieve the pressure on Japan’s central bank to do more to support growth”. Indeed, “some economists had been predicting that the bank would soon be forced to expand a stimulus programme”.
Indeed, the new figures “go some way to vindicating the Bank of Japan’s decision not to ease monetary policy this autumn and reduces the chances of more easing in the near future”, said the FT’s Robin Harding. But it’s always worth being wary of these figures anyway: “Japan devotes fewer staff to the national accounts than many other countries and senior policymakers often complain about the quality of the data”.