The latest industrial production and manufacturing figures were “unambiguously rubbish”, as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets put it. Industrial production (manufacturing, mining and energy supply) fell by 0.7% in November, the worst monthly fall in two years. Unusually warm weather dented electricity and gas output. Manufacturing output fared little better, declining by 0.4%. It has been treading water for a year. Industrial production is still 9.1% below the 2008 peak; factory output, 6.1%. Sterling sank to a five-year low under $1.44 against the dollar.
What the commentators said
Ever since George Osborne trumpeted a “march of the makers” in 2011, the sector has largely gone backwards, said Alistair Osborne in The Times. The sector’s share of GDP has actually slid from 13% to 10%, notwithstanding all the hopeful talk of a more balanced economy.
Factors such as a strong pound over the last few years, a slowdown in China and emerging markets, the euro crisis and general market volatility aren’t the chancellor’s fault. But “it’s the Tories” who are fuelling uncertainty and deterring investment through the EU referendum, and they have yet to tackle permanent obstacles for the sector, including skill shortages, restricted access to finance and comparatively high electricity costs.
The factory data, along with recent releases signalling slower growth, has fuelled the belief that interest rates will now stay lower for even longer, said Peter Spence in The Daily Telegraph. JP Morgan, one of the last banks to believe that the Bank of England would hike in the first half of the year, has now pushed its forecast for the first rise back to November.
This is the key reason sterling has weakened, but hardly the only one. The latest slump in the oil price implies that inflation, currently hovering around zero, is not likely to take off anytime soon, another reason to think the bank is in no hurry to tighten.
“Britain’s hefty current-account deficit makes it one of the most vulnerable major currencies when market sentiment sours,” added Jemima Kelly on Reuters.com, while the Brexit referendum is also moving centre stage. The uncertainty looks set to deter investment flows into the UK, leaving sterling exposed, Morgan Stanley’s Ian Stannard told Bloomberg.com. Deutsche Bank thinks sterling could fall by another 15% against the greenback by the end of 2016.