A vast amount of effort is expended in forecasting the US presidential election – yet perhaps one simple statistic can do a better job, says The Economist’s Free Exchange blog.
The higher the growth in disposable personal income in the six months before polling day, the better it is for the incumbent party’s popular vote margin, say researchers Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels.
Combine it with the length of time the incumbent party has been in office and it’s a powerful predictor of the result. Sluggish income growth suggests a close race this time. Clinton should not be confident.