Betfair punters also remain sceptical about the idea of Trump being prematurely forced out of office. You can still get 4.7 (21.2%) on him leaving before his first term ends and 1.27 (78.7%) against. They also think it very unlikely that he will leave this year, putting the odds at 14.5 (6.9%), compared with 1.04 (96%) on him departing in 2020 or later. While the odds of him being impeached by at least one House of Congress have shrunken in the past few days, you can still get 2.24 (44.6%) on him being impeached by the House of Representatives and 1.78 (56.1%) on him not.
I think that punters are greatly over-estimating Trump and the Republican Party’s chances of retaining control of the White House next November, though don’t bet any more if you followed my previous advice on these markets. The bet on Trump being impeached by the House of Representatives looks interesting, but I would hold off for now until we get a clear idea of what actually went on between him and the Ukrainian president.