Nate Silver – the staggeringly accurate US tipster who correctly forecast the results in 99 out of 100 states in the last two US presidential elections – has turned his attention to the general election.
His prediction? Sadly, Silver’s prognosticating skills can in this case only tell us what’s already obvious – it’s likely to be an “incredibly messy outcome”.
According to Silver’s model, the Conservatives will win 283 seats, to trump Labour’s 270. The SNP will make huge gains, with 48 seats, while the Liberal Democrats’ share will more than halve to just 24.
He predicts that the DUP will win eight seats, and that Ukip will take just one. Other parties will muster a total of 16 MPs between them.
In short, that means a mess.
“If these numbers hold steady, you’d have a case where Tories are the largest party”, Silver told the BBC’s Panorama last night. “Labour plus SNP are more than Tories plus Lib Dems. But even then they’re not a majority – they’re not 325.”
Adds Silver: “Betting markets seem to think there’d be more paths for Miliband in that case. But that’s an incredibly messy outcome.”
If he’s right, no two parties would be able to form a majority government without the help of a third.
Silver argues that this is all part of a “quiet revolution” taking part in UK politics – the end of the longstanding two-party system, and the dawn of a new era whereby smaller parties determine who runs the House of Commons.
His approach differs from many other pollsters, as he takes into account crucial aspects such as the popularity of local MPs and people’s reluctance to disclose their voting preference before polling day – hence his relative success compared to other pollsters.
But he’s not always spot on. Despite Silver’s spate of uncanny predictions in the US, he’s historically had more trouble on this side of the Atlantic. In 2010, his firm Five Thirty-Eight forecast that Labour would hold onto just 214 seats. It actually won 258.
Perhaps that explains his hesitancy this time round. Silver accepts that “there’s still enormous uncertainty about who forms a government after May 7”.