Iran claimed a “symbolic landmark in its quest to join the nuclear club” this Wednesday by staging a dummy run of the long-delayed Bushehr reactor, says Robert Tait in The Guardian. Following a satellite launch earlier this month and reports of its accumulation of a crucial supply of enriched uranium, Iran’s progress at Bushehr is an “enormous source of pride for Iranians and a major worry for the West”, says Borzou Dragahi in the Los Angeles Times. Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is designed to produce electricity, but Western powers believe Tehran is more interested in atomic weaponry.
No one really knows how far Iran is from creating a nuclear bomb, says The Jerusalem Post. Experts believe it has amassed 1,010kg of reactor-grade nuclear fuel. It needs around 1,700kg to make a bomb and it could take months, or even years, to enrich the uranium to weapons-grade material. Yet the quantity it already has takes Tehran over the nuclear breakout capacity threshold of a tonne of fissile material.
That’s sufficient cause for alarm, says Tony Halpin in The Times. But the figures don’t really matter, says Hans Blix, former head of UN inspections in Iraq, in The Guardian. The key issue is whether it develops an industrial-scale capability to carry out uranium enrichment. Then it would be close to being able to build a bomb. The Obama administration has made overtures to Iran, and it is wise to do so. “Failure to dissuade Iran from developing industry-scale enrichment could have dangerous consequences.”
It is not impossible that Iran will abandon its nuclear plants, since buying uranium fuel would be cheaper than producing it “if coupled with strong international fuel-supply assurances”. It must also be aware that enrichment in Iran might lead to enrichment in other Middle Eastern countries. Indeed, a nuclear Iran would threaten far more than the Middle East, says the Jerusalem Post. Engagement policy may be “worth a try”, but in reality “biting” sanctions – a “complete blockade”, for instance – are more likely to stop Tehran from “getting the bomb”.